A Turning Point in Tallahassee?

Take-aways from last night's election

August 21, 2024

Good morning everyone,

It was actually a bit exciting to follow last night’s election! I’m still digging through the data and compiling thoughts, but below are some brief-takeaways. Congratulations to those of you who worked on campaigns this cycle - because of your work, we may see the gridlock on the Commission actually loosen!

1. Progressives win big.

   Last night, Commissioner Porter sailed to re-election, easily winning a second term against two challengers, Louis Dilbert and Rudy Ferguson. Former Commissioner and Mayor Dot Inman-Johnson forced Commissioner Richardson to a run-off.

   She’ll face him again in November, where she may benefit from higher turn-out driven by the abortion and marijuana ballot Amendments, along with the Presidential Election. There’s still a chance Richardson could retain his seat by replicating Mayor Dailey’s efforts in 2022, where Dailey lost in the primary to Kristin Dozier, but won in the general.

2. Is the Progressive base growing or dying?

   Although some are saying Porter’s and Inman-Johnson’s wins are representative of a strong or growing progressive base, that may not actually be fully true.

   

   While Porter won outright, she earned 20% less votes this election compared to her last one, and 10,000 fewer voters participated. If the progressive base is growing or stronger, then shouldn’t it be energized to turn out and vote — at least at the same level it did in 2020 or even 2022 — in a high-stakes election that could end the 3-2 vote split on the Commission that has blocked basic reform and sustainable development? If anything, I think the data will show that communities desperate for progress are losing their voice and their vote is being diluted.

3. This is the fourth primary election in a row with declining voter turn-out.

   Although Progressives were successful this time around, there should be some concern about low and declining voter turn-out. Low turn-out represents voter disengagement and civic apathy — which ultimately hurts all candidates, up- and down- the ballot, and makes it harder to have competitive elections or even encourage public participation outside of election season. This is a time where Progressives and Democrats alike should be inviting people to participate and get involved.

   1. 2018 Primary Election Turn-out - 37.03%

   2. 2020 Primary Election Turn-out - 35.8%

   3. 2022 Primary Election Turn-out - 33.1%

   4. 2024 Primary Election Turn-out - 30.3%

4. Shrinking student turn-out* at FSU, but not FAMU.

   

   Typically, FSU turns out more voters than FAMU in elections, but the tide may be changing! More FAMU students showed up to vote in this primary compared to the last one. This is especially surprising given how most FAMU students aren’t even on campus yet; classes starts next week. It’s too early to say what drove turn-out, but I’d like to think my mini digital campaign helped 🤠 For the past two elections, I’ve posted daily early voting reports for FAMU and FSU to start conversation and raise awareness. Like last year, this campaign’s was a success! We got hundreds of shares and even got a chance to partner with two new organizations: Representative Anna Eskamani’s People Power Florida and FSU’s SPEAR.

   

   Investing in Tallahassee’s student population is so important. Not just to increase graduate retention, but also to awaken political consciousness in the youth and to develop new leaders in the movement. Jack Porter and I both attended FSU, where we were ignited by the student movement on campus and were eventually funneled into community organizing and local politics. Without students, Tallahassee’s progressive movement will shrivel up.

   *Based on voter statistics from FAMU (Precinct 1309) and FSU (Precincts 2503, 1507, and 1503) - mainly represents on-campus students.

5. Survey: What made you vote?

   With turn-out low, I’m wondering what main issue resonated enough to lead a majority of Tallahassee residents to vote against the majority on the Commission. Let me know why you voted!

   1. Vote above! Explained options:

      1. Increased property taxes to fund the hiring of more police officers

      2. Prolonged negotiations with Tallahassee firefighters

      3. Unsustainable development/culture around developers influencing politics

      4. Dissatisfaction with incumbent politicians/the 3-2 vote split

Those are my main thoughts for now. Let me know what you think!

Talk soon,

Shelby